By Aurélie Pugnet, Euractiv Network, Euractiv Newsroom, Magnus Lund Nielsen and Sarantis Michalopoulos
Brussels circles are already discussing the merits of candidates, given the need for expertise in EU policies over the next five years. [EPA-EFE/OLIVIER MATTHYS]
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has set the bar high for her second term, stating during her July speech to the European Parliament that decisions taken over the next five years will determine Europe’s “place in the world for the next 50 years.”
Von der Leyen is now preparing the mandate letters for the commissioners-designate nominated by member states, who will join her team if they pass the Parliament’s grilling.
However, Brussels circles are already discussing the merits of these candidates, given the need for expertise in EU policies over the next five years.
“This time, the mission letters will be a job description that will need to reflect the candidates’ competences […] quality will be needed to face the multilevel challenges globally and internally”, a Brussels insider with experience of EU elections told Euractiv.
Assigning the right roles to the right person will be key in demonstrating how the future EU executive intends to respond to the continent’s future challenges of being green, competitive and resilient.
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Economists prevail
The profiles of the candidates announced so far largely match the ‘economic’ needs of the next EU executive, with nine candidates having experience in the field of economics.
In addition, seven specialise in environmental, agricultural and energy issues, such as the Czech, Danish, Dutch and Spanish picks, and four have expertise in foreign and security policy.
In addition, 14 candidates—half of the group—have EU political experience, and four are considered to have a technocratic background (Czechia, France, Portugal, Slovenia) rather than a more political background.
The heavyweights
Regarding political heavyweights, von der Leyen could face tough talks with France’s Thierry Breton, who questioned her leadership immediately after being chosen as the centre-right EPP’s top candidate in the EU elections.
And Hungary’s Olivér Várhelyi will not make her life any easier, as he will be the voice of the far-right ‘Patriots for Europe’ front, the political club of Viktor Orban’s Fidesz and France’s Rassemblement National.
Spain’s Teresa Ribera, a “guardian” of the Green Deal, could also prove to be a force to be reckoned with. If the Green Deal file is reopened, her role will be key in striking the right balance between von der Leyen’s “pragmatic” implementation and the more ambitious approach pushed by her Socialist family and the Greens.
Last, the Czech Jozef Síkela has already clashed with von der Leyen over the 2022 price cap proposal and showed determination to negotiate during his country’s presidency amid the Russian gas crisis.
Who are the Commissioners?
Magnus Brunner (EPP), Austria
Austria has proposed Magnus Brunner (EPP), the country’s finance minister, as its next commissioner. A member of parliament for the centre-right ÖVP for fifteen years, Brunner also has experience in the private sector, notably as political director of the Austrian Economic Federation between 2002 and 2005.
Although Vienna hopes that Brunner could inherit the budget portfolio of his compatriot and current Austrian commissioner, Johannes Hahn, many countries have expressed similar ambitions. But Brunner’s credentials should at least put him in the running for an economic portfolio.
The nominee has expressed a desire to focus on the EU’s competitiveness but he is not a fan of achieving this by increasing public spending, having made a name for himself as an outspoken “frugal” during his time in Vienna.
Hadja Lahbib (Renew Europe), Belgium
Three days after the deadline (30 August), Belgium proposed Foreign Minister Hadja Lahbib as its commissioner, snubbing the incumbent Didier Reynders for a second mandate.
Lahbib only joined the French-speaking Belgian liberal party Mouvement Réformateur after being appointed minister in 2022.
Born in Boussu, Belgium, to Algerian immigrants, Lahbib pursued a degree in Journalism and Communication from the Université Libre de Bruxelles. As a journalist, she was deployed to the Middle East and Afghanistan.
In 2021, Lahbib visited Crimea and refused to condemn Russia’s annexation of the peninsula. Later, as foreign minister, Lahbib expressed full support for Ukraine and referred to Russia’s Crimea as “illegal.”
Belgium has yet to reveal which portfolio Lahbib is aiming for. Yet, choosing a female candidate might have improved the country’s chances of securing a substantial (economic) portfolio or a (executive) vice presidency.
Ekaterina Zaharieva (EPP), Bulgaria
Nominated by Boyko Borissov’s GERB party, Ekaterina Zaharieva is one of the two nominees for the Bulgarian seat in the Commission. Bulgaria is aiming to get the regional policy portfolio in the next European Commission and has a chance to do so, several sources in Sofia reported.
Zaharieva is currently a party member and deputy in the Bulgarian parliament. She was previously foreign minister between 2017 and 2021. Over the past 11 years, Zaharieva has held several key political positions, some of which involved regional policy. In earlier days, she served as deputy minister for regional development, a brief stint as minister for regional policy, and later justice minister 2015 and 2017.
Julian Popov (Renew affiliated), Bulgaria
Popov is nominated as one of the two commissioners alongside Ekaterina Zaharieva proposed by the current Bulgarian caretaker government.
Popov is a Fellow of the European Climate Foundation and a prominent climate activist. Although not a party member, he recently served as minister of environment and water under the leadership of Prime Minister Nikolai Denkov (PP, Renew). Popov also sits on the board of directors for Euractiv Bulgaria.
Where Zaharieva is aiming for a portfolio related to regional policy, Popov’s credentials could merit an energy or social policy-related portfolio.
Dubravka Šuica (EPP), Croatia
Re-nominated as Croatia’s commissioner earlier this month, Šuica has served as vice president of the EU executive and commissioner for democracy and demography since 2019. Hailing from the centre-right Croatian Democratic Union, the former MEP, national MP and mayor of her native Dubrovnik reportedly had to be “begged” to move to Brussels five years ago but seems to have warmed to life at the Berlaymont.
A staunch defender of cohesion policy, Šuica is also known for arguing that Europe’s demographic challenges should be addressed through legal migration and for proposing a ‘Defence of Democracy‘ directive, which many civil society groups have compared unfavourably to Hungary’s own anti-foreign influence law.
Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenković has refused to speculate on her future portfolio. Keeping her current portfolio would be an obvious choice, while the enlargement portfolio would be a big win for Šuica as the bloc’s newest member.
Costas Kadis, Cyprus
The Cypriot candidate, Kadis, is a biologist with ministerial experience in agriculture, education and culture. Nicosia appears to be eyeing the new ‘Mediterranean’ portfolio, though its geographical proximity to the Middle East may work against the country given the Commission’s new approach of avoiding EU policy portfolios being driven by national interests.
Though Cyprus’ Stella Kyriakides currently holds the health portfolio, local media point to the government not wanting a Cypriot to hold the portfolio again.
Jozef Síkela (EPP), Czechia
The Czech government’s choice for Commissioner is current industry and trade minister Jozef Síkela (EPP). In the second half of 2022, Síkela chaired the Energy Council meetings during the country’s EU presidency, which led to member states agreeing on coordinated savings in natural gas consumption or a cap on its price.
During the negotiations, Síkela clashed with von der Leyen when the European Commission drafted a proposal for a price cap that most member states considered too high. At the time, Síkela and his team openly criticised the Commission’s approach to gas pricing.
During the Czech EU presidency, Síkela became popular among EU diplomats and other ministers for his determination to get countries to agree on a solution to the energy situation. Síkela even handed out hoodies to his colleagues that read: “We will convene as many energy councils as necessary”.
Síkela is active on the energy agenda, promoting the development of renewable and nuclear energy in his country, with an interest in fair competition and the internal market. Before entering Czech politics in 2021, he worked as a manager in the banking sector.
Dan Jørgensen (S&D), Denmark
Dan Jørgensen, minister for development cooperation and global climate policy, is leaving Mette Frederiksen’s government and going to Brussels with hopes of getting a climate or energy-related portfolio.
Announcing her pick, Frederiksen said she had conferred with Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and expected Jørgensen to get a “central portfolio” on climate and energy. Having been elected twice to the European Parliament, Jørgensen, a lifelong Social Democrat, is not new to Brussels.
Kaja Kallas (Renew), Estonia
Kaja Kallas stepped down as Estonia’s prime minister in June after being appointed the EU’s top diplomat. Originally a lawyer specialising in European competition law, she has served two terms in the Estonian parliament and one in the European Parliament (2014 and 2018).
As leader of the liberal Estonian Reform Party, she was elected Estonia’s first female prime minister in 2021; in this role, she leaned against government aid interfering with free market forces.
More popular abroad than at home, her approval ratings took a hit after reports emerged about her husband’s business ties to Russia. Since Russia’s war on Ukraine, she has emerged as a key voice in mobilising support for Kyiv and more investment in European defence.
The “Iron Lady” has often been mentioned as a potential candidate for the new NATO secretary-general but will now represent the EU on the world stage.
Henna Virkkunen (EPP), Finland
A highly experienced political operator, Finnish pick Henna Virkkunen (EPP) has served three times as an MEP and held three different portfolios in the country’s national government, including education, public administration, and transport.
Since being elected to the European Parliament in 2014, Virkkunen has served on the Parliament’s Industry, Research and Energy (ITRE) and Transport and Tourism (TRAN) committees, as well as the special committee of inquiry into the use of the infamous Pegasus spyware.
A strong advocate of “cutting red tape” to boost economic growth and an ardent supporter of Ukraine, Virkkunen – who describes herself as “collaborative, transparent and forward-looking” – is reportedly eyeing a portfolio related to competitiveness, security, enlargement or defence.
Thierry Breton (Renew affiliated), France
Thierry Breton, the current internal market commissioner, has been reappointed by French President Emmanuel Macron for another five-year term. This time, Paris hopes for a broader portfolio that includes IT security and defence. A respected business leader and seasoned politician, Breton is no stranger to European affairs but can occasionally make his colleagues in the College of Commissioners nervous.
On 12 August, he urged billionaire Elon Musk to respect EU law on X without informing von der Leyen of his initiative. He has also criticised von der Leyen on several occasions.
Apostolos Tzitzikostas (EPP), Greece
Apostolos Tzitzikostas, the Greek government’s choice, is currently the governor of the Greek region of Central Macedonia and a former head of the European Committee of the Regions.
He would theoretically be in line for the regional policy portfolio —but Athens has requested the transport portfolio. Euractiv understands that the Greek government is insisting on this portfolio, with Commission sources say nothing is a foregone conclusion. He has a strong political profile, but technically, he has no experience in transport.
Tzitzikostas’ opposition to the North Macedonia name change deal is also an obstacle to getting an enlargement-related portfolio. Whatever the portfolio, Greece’s candidate will have to deal with “hot potatoes”.
Olivér Várhelyi (PfE affiliated), Hungary
Olivér Várhelyi, currently the EU’s enlargement commissioner, has once again been chosen by the Hungarian government as its candidate for the new European Commission. A lawyer by training, Várhelyi has long held various positions in Brussels and was promoted to Hungary’s EU ambassador in 2015. In 2019, he was tipped for the commissioner’s job only after the country’s first choice was rejected in a European Parliament hearing.
As enlargement commissioner, he was responsible for EU accession talks and monitoring the alignment of EU hopefuls with EU values. His busy term, which saw the opening of accession talkswith key EU hopefuls such as Ukraine, was rewarded with another round in Brussels, in which he would reportedly like to keep his current portfolio.
Seen as an effective technocrat, his political loyalty to Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has sometimes raised questions about pursuing national interests, which could give him a hard time at the hearings and potentially payback for Hungary’s increasingly disruptive attitude.
Things got even more complicated for him after he stunned EU lawmakers by calling them “idiots” on a hot mic and taking a staunchly pro-Israeli line since the Gaza war.
Michael McGrath (Renew), Ireland
Taoiseach Simon Harris (Fine Gael, EPP) appointed Michael McGrath, an experienced legislator who was elected to the Irish parliament and served as finance minister from 2022 until his appointment.
With McGrath’s credentials, the Irish government hopes to inherit a portfolio similar to that of current Irish Commissioner Mairead McGuiness, who is responsible for financial services, financial stability and capital markets union.
Harris confirmed that Ireland had not consulted von der Leyen before deciding on its choice of commissioner. With the prospective Commission looking more male-dominated than many of its predecessors, Irish media have begun to worry that the unilateral choice of McGrath could damage Ireland’s chances of a substantial portfolio.
Raffaele Fitto (ECR), Italy
Giorgia Meloni (FdI, ECR) has picked minister for European Affairs, Cohesion Policy and the South, Raffaele Fitto, to be the Italian government’s commissioner nominee.
Fitto was previously a member of the both the Christian Democrats and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia, before eventually joining Meloni’s Brothers of Italy.
He has served as President of the Apulia region and minister for Regional Affairs and Cohesion Policies under Berlusconi. With more than ten years experience as a member of the European Parliament, Fitto also knows the EU institutions from the inside.
Fitto is widely recognised for his expertise in cohesion policies and the Italian implementation of the COVID recovery plan, making him a candidate for a role in economic or regional affairs. EPP party leader Manfred Weber has teased that a significant portfolio could be in store for the new Italian commissioner.
Valdis Dombrovskis, (EPP), Latvia
Trade Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis has been nominated for a potential third term as Latvia’s commissioner.
An experienced centre-right politician, he served as finance minister and MEP before leading his country out of the financial crisis as prime minister from 2009 to 2014. Dombrovskis has since served as Latvia’s commissioner with various financial responsibilities, serving as commissioner for financial stability, financial services, and capital markets union from 2016 to 2020 and trade commissioner since 2020, making him a strong candidate for an economic portfolio.
A physicist turned financial policy veteran, Dombrovskis plays basketball and goes skiing in his spare time.
Andrius Kubilius (EPP), Lithuania
Lithuania’s commissioner choice, Andrius Kubilius, has twice served as Lithuania’s prime minister (1999-2000 and 2008-2012), during which time he steered the Eastern European country through the 2008 global financial crisis.
In June’s European elections, Kubilius was re-elected MEP. In the EU assembly, Kubilius was active in the Foreign Affairs Committee and the EU’s relations with Moscow.
Vilnius hopes that Kubilius’ record and Lithuania’s stance as a staunch supporter of its eastern neighbours will win him the enlargement or competitiveness portfolio.
Christophe Hansen, (EPP), Luxembourg
Chosen by Luxembourg Prime Minister Luc Frieden for his “extensive experience in EU affairs”, Christophe Hansen is a 43-year-old EPP member from the northern town of Witz.
The centre-right politician’s past on the European Parliament’s international trade, environment, food, and health committees could give the Grand Duchy a shot at the agriculture portfolio. As a former ENVI committee rapporteur on a key Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) regulation, Hansen’s hands-on experience with agricultural issues could make him the most competent candidate.
The aspiring candidate confirmed his interest in the post to local media this week, stressing the need for a flexible approach to accommodate the different needs of Luxembourg and the southern European member states.
Glenn Micallef (S&D affiliated), Malta
Glenn Micallef, 34, will be Malta’s first candidate to serve as a civil servant but not a politician after a fraud case against previous nominee Deputy Prime Minister Chris Fearne scuppered plans.
The technocrat has been appointed chief of cabinet to Prime Minister Robert Abela in 2020 and his adviser on EU affairs and sherpa to the European Council. Micallef, who has a degree in economics and European politics, was head of the unit in charge of external relations and preparations for Malta’s EU presidency before serving as director general of Malta’s EU Coordination Unit, where he worked on Brexit.
He also worked briefly for the Socialists and Democrats Group in the European Parliament in Brussels.
Wopke Hoekstra (EPP), The Netherlands
On the Dutch side, the government is trying to reinstate incumbent Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra. However, given the diminished prestige of the portfolio following the June elections, it seems more likely that the former finance minister will give it up in favour of a finance-related job.
Hoekstra’s nomination as climate commissioner had already sparked debate due to his links to major polluters, including multinational consultancy McKinsey.
In 2023, concerns from the European Parliament led to successive rounds of vetting, raising questions about whether a similar scenario could play out again. Hoekstra also prompted the EU’s negotiations at COP28, which ended with what experts described as lukewarm resolutions.
Piotr Serafin (EPP affiliated), Poland
Poland’s pick, Piotr Serafin, a 50-year-old lawyer and economist by training, is one of Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s closest and most trusted confidants.
In 2014, he became head of Tusk’s cabinet when the latter was appointed European Council president and took on the position of Director of the General Secretariat of the EU Council for Transport, Telecommunications and Energy between 2020-2023. For a few months, he has been heading Poland’s Permanent Representation to the EU.
Tusk hopes for an attractive portfolio—possibly a vice president post—and as one of the strongest supporters of von der Leyen’s re-election, he can certainly expect to be rewarded.
Warsaw recently said it is aiming for a budget portfolio that would suit the candidate’s economic profile. Upcoming EU budget negotiations will also require a steady hand, and Serafin has been seen as a skilled technocrat in Brussels circles.
As one of the EU’s staunchest supporters of Ukraine, Warsaw has also eyed the enlargement portfolio, although farmers’ protests in the country have embodied existing concerns over Kyiv joining the bloc in the future.
Maria Luís Albuquerque (EPP), Portugal
Maria Luis Albuquerque, the 56-year-old former finance minister of Portugal, was hand-picked by Lisbon when the country was under the EU Troika bailout.
As a member of the supervisory board of the European subsidiary of US firm Morgan Stanley, insiders see her technocratic expertise as vital as Portugal seeks an economic portfolio, but her involvement with the US giant could prove politically problematic.
Roxana Mînzatu (S&D), Romania
Re-elected as MEP in June this year, Roxana Mînzatu previously served as a member of the Romanian Parliament from 2016 to 2020.
She studied political science in Bucharest, earned a master’s degree in European integration, and has worked in local administration and the Ministry of European Integration. In 2019, she was Romania’s minister of investments and European projects.
Should she be greenlit by the European Parliament, Mînzatu (44) is going to be an outlier in the new Commission as one of the youngest commissioner-designates and one of the few women nominees. Romania seems to be eyeing an economic portfolio for Mînzatu.
Maroš Šefčovič (Smer affiliated), Slovakia
Slovakia’s choice is Maroš Šefčovič, a man who has become a fixture in Brussels over the past 15 years. He joined the European Commission in 2009 as education commissioner and quickly became vice-president in inter-institutional relations.
Known for his adaptability and reliability, Šefčovič has worked under three Commission presidents, managing critical portfolios during challenges such as Brexit, financial crises and the COVID-19 pandemic. Most recently, he led the Green Deal, one of the EU’s flagship initiatives.
With Slovakia’s decision to reappoint him, he is on track to potentially become the EU’s longest-serving EU commissioner by 2027.
Tomaž Vesel (Renew Europe affiliated), Slovenia
As one of the first choices for the new EU Commission, Tomaž Vesel was announced by Slovenian Prime Minister Robert Golob (Freedom Movement, Renew) in April, well before the EU elections in June.
Vesel, a technocrat, was president of the Slovenian Court of Auditors between 2013 and 2022. Slovenia has thrown its name into the hat of countries interested in a commissioner portfolio related to finance, budget, or enlargement – three areas where Vesel’s experience would come into play.
Teresa Ribera (S&D), Spain
Teresa Ribera, Spain’s current ecological transition minister, is seen as an experienced environmental politician and a political “guardian” of the Green Deal. If the latter is revisited, her role will be key in striking the right balance between a “pragmatic” implementation, as proposed by von der Leyen, and a more ambitious approach pushed by the Socialists and Greens.
Jessika Roswall (EPP), Sweden
Nominated as Sweden’s first Moderate (EPP) in the country’s 28-year history as an EU member, lawyer, and MEP, Jessika Rosswall focused on tax, civil affairs and consumer rights before being appointed minister for EU affairs and Nordic relations in Ulf Kristersson’s government in 2022.
As minister, she has led Sweden’s focus on Ukraine, security, climate, competitiveness and law enforcement in the EU. Kristersson hopes Rosswall will find a place to continue working on these priorities.